- EV expert Loren McDonald, CEO of EVAdoption, predicted the top ten best-selling battery electric vehicles (BEVs) that will be sold in 2024, including model years 2023-2025.
- BEV sales numbers throughout the quarters of 2023 were used as one of the methods of making the predictions.
- This 2024 EV forecast of the best-selling, top ten battery-electric EVs to be sold in 2024 is an example of EVAdoption’s work, which provides clients with EV and EV charging industry data, forecasts and more.
Despite various challenges, the EV revolution is gaining incredible traction throughout the world and the United States. In 2023, the U.S. achieved its first-ever milestone of selling over one million EVs in a year. Those considering buying a battery electric vehicle (BEV) may be interested in which EVs will be the top sellers in 2024. EV industry professionals are also curious about this to determine the latest and greatest features in the newest vehicles and how they can change their offerings to remain competitive. EV expert Loren McDonald, CEO of EVAdoption, provided this 2024 EV forecast for the top ten battery-electric EVs that will sell in 2024 in the United States.
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Loren McDonald’s Calculations
Loren McDonald made this 2024 EV forecast of the best-selling, Top 10 Battery-Electric 2023-2025 EVs using several inputs, including 2023 sales, Q3 2023 sales, and Q3 2023 versus Q1 and Q2 2023 BEV sales to understand the potential direction of sales in the future for each model. He also examined the expected automaker production capacity and prioritization of EVs across their model portfolios. His further research revealed demand for BEVS from particular brands, segment types, and price points. Additionally, he looked at competitive factors for each model, potential attractive lease offers, and availability of the federal EV tax credit for each BEV model.
Loren gave his predictions for the Top 10 BEVs to be sold in 2024, in this 2024 EV forecast below.
10. 2024 Tesla Model X
The Model X has been a flagship in the electric vehicle market for several years, and the 2024 iteration continues to draw attention as a unique electric SUV equipped with innovative features. This versatile model comes in two variants, starting with the dual-motor Long Range edition, boasting 670 horsepower and an estimated driving range of 335 miles. For those seeking exhilarating performance, the Plaid model offers an impressive 1020 horsepower and the ability to cover up to 326 miles on a single charge. While the Model X excels in terms of acceleration, its comparison to newer luxury electric SUVs like the BMW iX or the Rivian R1S emphasizes the need for improvements in Tesla’s minimalist interior design and build quality.
9. 2024 Kia EV6
The Kia EV6 excels at transforming the EV ownership experience into something truly rewarding. It removes the complexities often associated with owning an EV and instead offers a delightful driving experience, impressive performance, and a generously spacious cabin. Its effortlessly stylish design sets it apart from the crowd, giving this Kia SUV a sense of uniqueness. In terms of range, the EV6 features an impressive 310 EPA-estimated miles on a single charge, while the more exciting EV6 GT Performance version delivers a staggering 576 horsepower for those seeking excitement. With a peak DC-fast charging rate of approximately 225 kW, the EV6 recharges rapidly, making long-distance electric travel more convenient. While it outshines competitors like the Ford Mustang Mach-E, Volkswagen ID.4, and Nissan Ariya, it’s worth noting that the EV6 does come at a slightly higher price point compared to its sibling, the Hyundai IONIQ 5.
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8. 2024 BMW i4 eDrive40
EVs are not just in competition with one another; they also find themselves compared to the legacy of gas-powered cars that came before them. Take the BMW i4 sedan, for example; it’s tasked with fulfilling two key roles: delivering high-performance driving and maximizing range. The i4 excels in the performance department, with the xDrive40 and M50 models boasting 396 and 536 horsepower, respectively. In fact, the i4 M50’s ride-and-handling even outshines the M3, a favorite among high-performance sedans.
When it comes to range, the xDrive40 leads the pack among i4 variants with an EPA-rated range of 307 miles. Additionally, it offers respectable DC-fast charging capabilities, with speeds reaching up to 200 kW. The i4 is a comfortable daily driver with impressive performance on-demand, although it does reveal moments where technology has potentially dulled the steering feel. Notably, the i4 features a hatchback trunk, enhancing its cargo-carrying versatility behind the rear seats.
7. 2024 Rivian R1S
The Rivian R1S stands out in the EV market as a versatile three-row SUV. The top-tier Quad-Motor version accelerates impressively, reaching 60 mph in just 3.1 seconds. This SUV comfortably seats seven passengers in its upscale interior, although the ride can feel a bit firm on rough roads. Off-road enthusiasts will appreciate the R1S’s capabilities, thanks to its air-spring suspension system, offering up to 15 inches of ground clearance. Quad-Motor models, equipped with an electric motor at each wheel, excel in traction and off-road performance, outclassing competitors like the Tesla Model X.
Loren said: “A growing number of BEV models compete with the Tesla Model Y (particularly the Rivian R1S) that could take away a few thousand units of sales, potentially leaving it a little short of making the top 10 list.”
Despite its boxy design, various battery options provide a practical range. The Standard battery offers an estimated 260 miles per charge, while the Large pack extends it to 352 miles, and the Max pack reaches an impressive 400 miles.
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6. 2024 Volkswagen ID.4
The all-electric Volkswagen ID.4, produced in Chattanooga, Tennessee, exudes a familiar and inviting aura. It shares a size comparable to gas-powered models like the Volkswagen Tiguan or Nissan Rogue. Introduced in 2020, it was among the earliest non-Tesla SUV alternatives. Its key strengths lie in affordability and spaciousness, all wrapped in a sleek, contemporary design. Base models feature a single motor with 201 horsepower, rear-wheel drive, and an EPA-estimated range of up to 291 miles. For improved performance, there’s an option for a 330-hp dual-motor AWD ID.4 with a larger battery, albeit at a slight range cost. While it may not DC fast-charge as rapidly as some competitors like the Hyundai IONIQ 5 and Ford Mustang Mach-E, the ID.4’s starting price, just above $40K, makes it an attractive choice, offering ample space, stylish aesthetics, and a smooth transition from traditional refueling to electric charging.
The 2024 version will feature a respectable range of up to EPA est. 275 miles. Notably, VW now offers bidirectional charging in all of the new Volkswagen ID. models with the 77 kWh battery.
5. 2024 Hyundai IONIQ 5
The Hyundai IONIQ 5 stands out for its unique and unapologetic design. Starting with a single-motor rear-drive model boasting 168 horsepower and an EPA-estimated 220 miles of range, it offers a solid entry point. For extended range, there’s a single-motor version reaching an estimated 303 miles. An all-wheel-drive dual-motor variant with 320 hp covers around 266 miles on a charge. Notably, the IONIQ 5 shines with its impressive 350-kW DC fast-charging capability, a feature typically found in higher-end EVs like the Porsche Taycan and Lucid Air. Surpassing the Ford Mustang Mach-E and Volkswagen ID.4 in rear-passenger space, the IONIQ 5 provides an accessible gateway into the world of EVs.
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4. 2024 Tesla Cybertruck
After a four-year delay, the Tesla Cybertruck was released last month to significant global attention.
Loren said: “The Cybertruck sales numbers are fundamentally going to be driven by the ability of Tesla to scale up production of its 4680 battery cells, and then the general challenges of scaling up production of a new model — especially one as complex as the Cybertruck. With an estimated over 1 million reservations for the Cybertruck, demand will not be the issue.”
The Cybertruck features many vital advancements in technology. Steer-by-wire, four-wheel steering, a 48V low-voltage system, 800V high-voltage architecture, and bidirectional charging are some of the innovative technologies offered in the truck.
3. 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E
The 2024 Ford Mustang Mach-E crossover, although leaning heavily on the Mustang name for recognition, emerges as a swift, powerful, stylish, and comfortable family car, featuring an array of appealing features. The lineup is categorized into four distinct trims: the budget-friendly Select, feature-packed Premium, long-range California Route 1, and the performance-oriented GT variants. While it may not be as cutting-edge as the Hyundai IONIQ 5, the Mustang Mach-E offers a well-appointed interior equipped with Ford’s latest technology. Most trims provide a range exceeding 250 miles on a single charge, and our test of the GT Performance Edition clocked an impressive 0-60 mph time of 3.7 seconds.
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2. 2024 Tesla Model 3
Tesla’s 2024 Model 3 has arrived in the U.S. following its initial launch in Europe and China, now open for orders on Tesla’s website with deliveries starting this month. The updates bring noticeable exterior improvements with new headlights and taillights, enhancing the sedan’s look. Inside, there are additions like ambient lighting, dual wireless smartphone charging pads, extra front air vents, a redesigned steering wheel, an 8.0-inch rear-seat touchscreen, standard heated and cooled front seats, and an upgraded audio system.
Tesla also upgraded interior materials and added sound-deadening material for a quieter cabin. The lineup includes the Standard Range model starting at $40,630 with 272 miles of range (or 248 miles with 19-inch wheels) and the Long Range model starting at $47,630 with a range of 341 miles (or 305 miles with 19-inch wheels), while details on a revised Model 3 Performance are yet to be confirmed. Expect similar updates for the Model Y in the near future, though specifics and timing remain undisclosed.
1. 2024 Tesla Model Y
The 2024 Tesla Model Y, although based on the Model 3, sacrifices some of the sedan’s agile handling for its taller SUV body. It may not be as nimble in corners, but it compensates with a roomier cabin and more accommodating cargo space, making it a practical choice for families or those needing cargo versatility. It boasts an impressive driving range, with the Long Range model offering up to 330 miles on a single charge, outperforming competitors like the Ford Mustang Mach-E and Volkswagen ID.4. The large touchscreen at the center of the dashboard houses the infotainment system and essential controls, though we find the lack of physical controls, such as for power mirror adjustments and steering column angle, somewhat inconvenient.
Loren said: “The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 will certainly continue to lap the field and come in number one and number two in the U.S.”
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Unlisted: 2023 Chevy Bolt
Chevy has transformed the Bolt since its 2016 introduction into an appealing small electric hatchback with unique styling, offering excellent value. As the most affordable EV in the U.S. for 2023, it’s a more accessible option compared to competitors like the Tesla Model 3 and Hyundai Kona Electric. The Bolt is not on this list because GM is ending its production at the end of 2023, and updated models will become available in 2025.
The Bolt features a single 200-horsepower motor powering the front wheels, providing an EPA-estimated range of 259 miles on a single charge. It also offers DC fast-charging, capable of adding up to 100 miles of range in just 30 minutes. Inside, the Bolt surprises with its spacious interior, offering ample cargo space, particularly with the rear seatback folded, which rivals that of a Chevy Equinox.
Loren McDonald, a Leading EV Expert
Recently, Loren McDonald participated in Electrify Expo’s popular Electrify Podcast, with guest host Matt Teske, (CEO of Chargeway) and host Jarod DeAnda. Loren’s company, EVAdoption, provides clients with EV and EV charging industry data and forecasts. It offers comprehensive information and data on the NEVI program through a subscription-based service.
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3 Responses
Consumer Reports ‘down-graded’ their “Reliability” ratings on the Kia EV6 and Hyundai Ionia 5, from 5/5 to 3/5 because of “internal charging issues”. They go on to state that the ‘issues’ are NOT related to ‘external charging’. Do you know, specifically, what type of ‘internal issues’ they documented? (I’ve tried to ask them via their website, but only got a ‘boilerplate, non-specific response.